Scotland Signs

April 20th, 2011

Some signs from a recent trip to Scotland. Most of these you can click on to see them in Flickr, where they are also geotagged so you can see where they were taken.

Here are some people ignoring a sign telling them not to go on the beach. There was some earth moving equipment parked up nearby. Apparently there was a project underway to move sand around. But sand was not being moved around right then, so people ignored the sign. This is evidence that the general public are still able to think for themselves, which is good.

Here, someone official has decided it would be a good idea to ask everyone to drive efficiently. As a friend wrote on Flickr, “Define ‘efficient’ :) Time-efficient works for me.”

Probably the same people responsible for the sign above, advertising themselves. Once again I find myself asking: what am I supposed to do with this information?

This is a refreshing change. Because we were out of season, there were no tourists, so the car parks were empty. So they were free. It would be so easy to charge anyway, but someone somewhere has decided not to.

In a world where all property is private, would there still be parks? I think so. Perhaps they would be like this park, where you must rent a key to able to open the gate and access it. I imagine that in this park it is allowed to take a bottle of wine to your picnic, unlike some London parks where picnicing couples get in trouble for drinking wine because wine is not allowed because of the winos, and of course rules must be enforced equally…

What?

April 9th, 2011

While shopping online on Tesco I saw:

What am I supposed to do with that information?

Coffee Price Oscillation

April 6th, 2011

Following on from my analysis of Steve Leighton’s ideas about fair trade, I noticed something else interesting he wrote:

The coffee market has also long been a reactive market; when prices are high, every piece of available land has a coffee plant on it, but when prices are low farms disappear along with the coffee, this in turn raises prices as beans become scarce, resulting in re-planting (you get the picture). For a coffee plant to be suitable for harvesting requires around 4 years from seedling to mature plant. So it’s easy to see why the market fluctuates so much, as there is a four year gap before changes are fully appreciated. The coffee-growing countries have tried and failed to work together, holding back crops to raise prices, but when harvests eventually hit the market a downturn in price always occurs. This leads to the whole boom and bust cycle that has been such a feature of the coffee market for many years.

I’m an engineer, and this kind of oscillation seems all too plausible to me. There is a negative feedback and a delay. It seems inevitable.

But I have questions: in a truly free market, is this inevitable? Can’t speculation such as futures markets damp this effect? If so, why do we still see the oscillation?

More importantly: is there any kind of outsider meddling that can solve the problem of oscillation without introducing even worse problems? (I have a tiny suspicion that the price oscillation may turn out to be a feature, not a bug, but it’s not immediately obvious how.)

Has Bean and Fair Trade

April 6th, 2011

I’ve recently been getting interested in coffee, and bought myself a grinder, which is pretty much an essential first step in getting the best out of coffee because ground coffee goes stale fast, so it’s highly preferable to grind it right before you brew it.

For beans I went to Has Bean. This is an internet roasting company. They source quality coffee from all over the world, and ship it out to customers the day they roast it. So you get freshly roasted coffee in the post. As far as I know, you can’t get coffee like this in supermarkets. Supermarkets sell whole bean coffee, but it’s bog standard coffee for the masses and it was roasted whenever. Most people think they are getting good coffee but they are buying pre-ground coffee in fancy packaging. It’s not the real deal. The point is it’s a different market: coffee geeks want something a bit special, while your average supermarket shopper is likely to think that splashing out on some slightly more expensive Fairtrade coffee is a good idea.

The man behind Has Bean, Steve Leighton, has other ideas about Fairtrade. He has written an article about why Has Bean do not carry Fairtrade coffees, and a review of the documentary Black Gold, both highly critical of the Fairtrade organisation. His arguments seem to boil down to:

  • Fairtrade spend a lot of money on advertising, swanky offices, armies of administrative staff and highly paid executives, which is perfectly acceptable in itself but undermines the idea that Fairtrade is all about helping poor farmers.
  • Fairtrade projects the idea that the Fairtrade brand is the only way a farmer can get a good deal: which is not true. They usually get better deals from speciality buyers like Has Bean who pay more for a higher quality product.
  • There are no quality checks: Fairtrade coffee charges the buyer a premium for inferior coffee.
  • The farmer is not paid enough to be able to invest and increase the quality of his beans, which is not good for him or you.
  • Fairtrade does not offer a particularly good price. The retail premium is much greater than the premium that goes to the farmer. The minimum price Fairtrade offer is actually quite low, only enough to subsist on, and much lower than the prices that speciality buyers like Has Bean pay.
  • When the market price of coffee goes above the Fairtrade price, farmers can end up tied to the lower Fairtrade price.

This is all interesting because I too have complained about the idea of fair trade. My angle is different: free trade is fair. My bullet points look like this:

  • If the price of coffee is too low for people to make a living at it, there is probably a good reason, such as that supply of coffee outstrips demand. There is too much coffee.
  • The fair trade movement inflates prices, thereby stimulating extra supply of something which there is already too much of.
  • The fair trade movement detracts from the real problem, which is that trade tariffs prevent farmers in poor countries from exporting other crops. They are effectively forced to be coffee farmers even when the coffee price is low.
  • Fair trade people are socialists, and only deal with co-operatives, and I have heard anecdotally that family run farms can end up having to join co-operatives to get the fair trade deals they think they need.

On the face of it, Steve and I don’t have much in common. He is a practical guy with the perspective of a speciality coffee roaster; I am a philosophical bloke with a libertarian outlook. But wait a minute. Steve writes:

An issue recently brought to my attention by a member of the trade, is that the commodity markets are the seller’s and buyer’s last resort. Coffees that end up on the commodity market are the surplus of over-production, beans which just aren’t good enough to sell to the speciality market (believe me if they could, they would sell to the speciality market, as this can mean as much as double the price).

So yes, there is too much coffee being produced. That’s why it is a cheap commodity. And Steve’s business is free trade in action. People want good coffee. Has Bean has direct relationships with farmers all over the world. They go out there, talk to the farmers, see how the farm operates and make deals based on the quality of the coffee.

Steve also talks about why it’s not a disaster for people to go out of business, which happens when trade is free:

For instance, in business, if a trader cannot cover costs, then it’s only a matter of time until the bank forecloses and the business is no more. This happens every day all around the world, but we need to look at why this happens. For example, the trader has a product no one will pay the wholesale price for, or, his product is not of a high enough quality to satisfy the market place.

In other words, if you can’t make good enough coffee to get a good price, your time would probably be better spent doing something else. Of course, it would help if you had a wider variety of things to choose from, which is where my criticism of trade tariffs comes in.

The other interesting thing about companies like Has Bean is that they illustrate the power of technology to make people richer: I can buy coffee from an obscure farm in Africa thanks to the power of the Internet. There are hardly any middlemen. Middlemen are always useful, of course, but the Internet removes the need for so many of them, which is a good thing. My middleman roasts the coffee for me. But I suspect the days of ordering green beans direct from farmers are not far away.

So between Has Bean and the internet we have half the solution to the problem of low coffee prices: I can buy non-commodity coffee. The other half of the problem is to get rid of daft injustices like the EU common agricultural policy, so that when coffee farms fail, they can profitably farm something else instead.

By the way, Steve Leighton is highly prolific. Have a look at his blog for more insight into coffee and the coffee market.

Monbiot on Nuclear Power

April 6th, 2011

I started to like George Monbiot a bit when I read his latest Guardian column on nuclear power. He has apparently changed his beliefs based on lots of work, digging into the evidence and checking sources. You certainly can’t accuse him of being the type of lazy journalist who doesn’t check his facts. And here he is saying: I thought nuclear power was bad, but now I don’t think it is bad any more, because I have done some research.

But something bothered me about why he thought nuclear power was okay. It’s as if he is right for the wrong reasons. In his correspondence with the anti-nuclear campaigner:

I’m struck by the fact that none of the attachments you’ve sent me is a peer-reviewed article. [...] I’m looking for peer-reviewed papers or high-level reports

In the analysis of her evidence:

As my article explains, the Yablukov book has little scientific standing and has not been peer-reviewed

From the article itself:

Its publication seems to have arisen from a confusion about whether the Annals was a book publisher or a scientific journal. The academy has given me this statement: “In no sense did Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences or the New York Academy of Sciences commission this work; nor by its publication do we intend to independently validate the claims made in the translation or in the original publications cited in the work. The translated volume has not been peer-reviewed by the New York Academy of Sciences, or by anyone else.”

I can see why a journalist wants to be able to point to proper papers in proper scientific journals, but it’s all argument from authority. There’s very little engagement with the details of the argument. What are the scientists saying? What are the environmentalists saying? Why is the group that is right, right? Why is the group that is wrong, wrong?

And then this, at which I went from thinking, “maybe Monbiot is not so bad after all” to “oh, yes he is”:

Failing to provide sources, refuting data with anecdote, cherry-picking studies, scorning the scientific consensus, invoking a cover-up to explain it: all this is horribly familiar. These are the habits of climate change deniers, against which the green movement has struggled valiantly, calling science to its aid. It is distressing to discover that when the facts don’t suit them, members of this movement resort to the follies they have denounced.

Those who refute the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, (deniers, if you like), are not correct because they have more peer reviewed papers published in respected scientific journals. They are correct because they have analysed the data and methods of climate scientists and found flaws in the work. You can tell they are correct by understanding the arguments. For example, you can learn what principal component analysis is and how it works and see why its incorrect use in producing the hockey stick graph gave the results that it did. And it’s quite possible to explain this to a general audience.

This is exactly what Monbiot’s “climate change deniers” have done. They have not failed to provide sources (in fact they are more open than the climate scientists, and in many cases their original work is their source, whether it is peer-reviewed or not), they do not rely on anecdote, they do scorn the scientific consensus (consensus is meaningless) and they don’t invoke “cover-ups”.

Peer-review is not the be-all-and-end-all. It’s perfectly possible for groupthink to set in. Scientists often get attached to their theories and defend them too much. The consensus is often overturned. Without understanding the details, the UN’s report into Chernobyl might be just as flawed as its report into climate change.

If Monbiot dropped all the argument from authority and wrote about, for example, why the UN report on Chernobyl is more correct than the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences book, then he would have a better case.

He actually does this occasionally:

A devastating review in the journal Radiation Protection Dosimetry points out that the book achieves its figure by the remarkable method of assuming that all increased deaths from a wide range of diseases – including many which have no known association with radiation – were caused by the accident(15). There is no basis for this assumption, not least because screening in many countries improved dramatically after the disaster and, since 1986, there have been massive changes in the former eastern bloc. The study makes no attempt to correlate exposure to radiation with the incidence of disease(16).

That’s the kind of analysis which can get to the truth. If Monbiot could do this consistently, and apply the same kind of thinking to the global warming debate, he might come up with the right answer there, as well.

Delroy Grant

March 24th, 2011

Delroy Grant burgled dozens of old people and raped or sexually assaulted at least 18. He’s been doing it for years. The Metropolitan Police have apologised for missing a chance to catch him in 1999. There was a blunder involving his identity which caused him to be eliminated from their enquiries.

But there is only so much the police can do. No matter how effective the police are, they can’t be everywhere. They are at least minutes away. And when you are being burgled by a serial rapist, seconds count.

The real problem here, and it is a huge crime in itself, is that all those poor, defenceless elderly people were defenceless.

Everything Competes With Everything

March 22nd, 2011

Patrick Crozier makes a good point regarding mobile phone companies merging and the effect of this on competition:

I am quite happy to believe that in a pure free market all sorts of industries will be virtual monopolies. The point is that competition will still exist. Maybe not within the industry but between it and other industries.

And I seem to remember Mr Micklethwait, somewhere uttering the very words, “everything competes with everything.” Indeed it must: we only have limited money, and we must decide where to spend it. If I buy an ice cream, that’s less money I have to spend on train fares. So trains compete with ice cream. We don’t *need* dozens of train companies to have healthy competition. If trains are too expensive, people will find some other way to travel, or they will stay at home and eat ice cream. Either way, the train company loses.

The same with mobile phones: if there is one company and it charges too much or fails to innovate, people will find some other way of communicating.

As for the fuss about AT&T and T-Mobile, Michael Jennings explains all and suggests that everything is as it should be.

Update: Brian has found his original article about everything competing with everything.

Freedom, Mergers and Monopolies

March 21st, 2011

In the USA, AT&T are to merge with T-Mobile. This is considered bad news. And it may well be: T-Mobile are considered the better operator for data, and they introduced the first Android phone.

But then there is this viewpoint:

No, not with conditions. Not with asset disposals. Not with commitments. It must never be allowed. Ever. No way, no how. The absolute bedrock of capitalism is competition. The whole essence of our free market system lies in consumer choice… Take away that choice and the consumer is powerless.

That’s Brett Arends on Market Watch.

If you think you need government regulation to preserve capitalism, I think there is something wrong with your thinking. I suspect something else is going on: could government regulation be causing this merger, indirectly? Why aren’t there dozens of small operators? Probably because regulation makes being a mobile telecoms operator more difficult to do than it should be.

Chain Reaction

March 21st, 2011

Nuclear fission illustrated with ping pong balls and mouse traps.

Coooool.

Self Interest

March 17th, 2011

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages.

So said Adam Smith. And it’s just so self-evidently obvious.

And yet tonight on Question Time, everyone agreed that the absolute worst thing that could happen to the NHS was for private companies could get involved and do things for profit.

People are strange.