Eastenders on State Intrusion Into Family Life

February 13th, 2010

None of my readers would watch such low culture as Eastenders. Luckily, I watch it so that they don’t have to.

A couple of days ago, the devil child Dotty was caught mischievously pouring water on her stroke victim grandfather’s lap. Grandmother Dot Cotton, in an uncharacteristic pique of anger, gave her a well-deserved slap.

Then tonight, the cops show up at the local pub and arrest poor old Dot Cotton for assaulting a minor. At the police station she is interviewed and admits to hitting the girl. The police decide that as she is the “primary carer”, they will treat it as a “smack from a parent” rather than assault. But they warn her not to do it again.

Dot Cotton gets up to leave, but this is not the end of the matter. Oh no. She is to face interviews with social workers, and social workers will visit her home to “evaluate” the care of Dotty.

It’s a positively chilling story. Good on the BBC for raising awareness of the issues of state bullying, nosiness, and possibly even kidnapping.

The Only Good Sheep Is A Dead Sheep On My Plate

February 12th, 2010

A school teacher who sold the school sheep for meat has resigned after coming under pressure from various Facebook groups and the like. In the Telegraph, Charlie Brooks moans about the nation’s attitude towards meat. Other commenters suggested that it was mainly a problem of online bullying. I left the following comment:

“For when it comes to food, we have become a nation of dreadful hypocrites.”

I had a look at one of the Facebook groups and I didn’t see much hypocrisy on display. They’re all a bunch of vegans and animal rights activists. In other words, the analysis that this says more about the power of social networking than anything else is probably about right.

I don’t see this as a problem because it works both ways. All we need to do is learn to recognise what is happening when these minority groups speak out, so that they can be properly ignored. The only relevant question is, who *owned* the sheep? It’s none of anyone else’s business, no matter how vocal and organized they are.

Skeptics In The Pub on Blogging

February 9th, 2010

Last night I was invited to a Skeptics in the Pub debate about whether political blogging has any effect. I couldn’t go, but my friend who went sent me a couple of links about it.

Mark Reckons review of the event; some video and audio.

Guido was there and said this, which I think is true and important:

Paul Staines started by saying that there are about 3,000 people who run the UK (politicians, financial people and the media) and about half of them regularly read his blog. They are the people he is trying to reach although his primary purpose in writing it is to amuse himself.

(This fits in with what someone, possibly Perry de Havilland, told me when I complained that no-one I know reads blogs: it doesn’t matter because you only have to influence the influential people.)

Apart from that there was some talk about whether the comparitive roles of bloggers and professional journalists when it comes to investigative journalism. I think it’s pretty clear that blogs increasingly lead on the stories and the MSM follows. It’s not clear whether the MSM is needed to influence those 3,000 people.

Read about my previous encounter with Skeptics in the Pub when they discussed global warming with Fred Singer.

No Conspiracy Needed

February 9th, 2010

Eric Raymond kicks ass by writing basically what I’ve been thinking for a long time without ever quite straightening it out enough to write about it myself.

In his post he explains what he means by error cascade, zombie, Gaianist and green-shirt, but if you’re short on time you can guess and you’ll be about right. Here’s the good bit:

My model of what’s been going on is basically this: The hockey team starts an error cascade that sweeps up a lot of scientists. The AGW meme awakens chiliastic emotional responses in a lot of Gaianists. The zombies and the green-shirts grab onto that quasi-religious wave as a political strategem (the difference is that the zombies actively want to trash capitalism, while the green-shirts just want to hobble and milk it). Pro-AGW scientists get more funding from the green-shirts within governments, which reinforces the error cascade — it’s easier not to question when your grant money would be at risk for doing so. After a few times around this cycle, the hockey team notices it’s riding a tiger and starts on the criminal-conspiracy stuff so it will never have to risk getting off.

Overall, is this conspiracy? No. Mostly it’s just people responding to short-term incentives, unaware that they’re caught up in an error cascade and/or being politically fucked around.

He also explains why it will all just happen again unless people are properly punished.

School Indoctrination

February 8th, 2010

On a Samizdata post about the Tories’ failure to capitalise on the recent loss of faith in climate science, Nick Davis comments:

At school, my 9 year old and his classmates are learning all about ranforests.

Part of his homework for the weekend is research: “Find as many reasons for the destruction of the rainforests as you can. Record them in an informative way“.

What an interesting question? What an open-minded teacher!

I have given him a handful of pointers: to raise a country out of poverty by export led growth; to clear land for industrialisation or habitation; to provide building materials; to clear land for farming.

His reply is that I have misunderstood the teacher’s instruction. He is supposed to be finding out why it has happened/is happening, not why it may be a Good Thing (TM).

He’s either too clever for me, or too indoctrinated! My explanation about eco-imperialism (why should we deny them the ability to enjoy western comforts?) was met with “if they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet“.

Following our discussion he has therefore written this: “There is no reason for destroying the rainforests”.

I think I need to dig up Alvin Rabushka’s book (which I have lent out or lost or both) or Peter Bauer for some inspiration. Anyone any other ideas?

UPDATE: Just remembered that Lomborg’s The Skeptical Environmentalist has a discussion on this issue. And my well-thumbed copy is in easy reach…

William H Stoddard makes this valid snipe about “[I]f they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet.”:

That kid’s mastered the green agenda, all right: We have to keep Them poor. It’s for their own good, of course.

Manuel II Paleologos chips in with:

Nick – I was revising GCSE RE with my eldest last week and came across a statement categorically stating that “poverty” has got worse in the world since the Brandt report in 1980.

What can they mean? Bring back Carter and Callaghan!

It’s hard to know where to start deconstructing this argument, but I struggled to think of any measure at all where this was true.

My eldest is a bit autistic so I tried not to confuse him too much, but Parents’ Evening is going to be fun.

Ages ago, the englishman was complaining about his son’s homework being set by Christian Aid, and being all about how climate change is making life hard for poor people.

All of this is of much interest to me, as I’m expecting to be sending a child of my own to school in, ooh, about five years or so. Nick Davis’s comment in particular is interesting because his son argues back. Now, Nick Davis’s son presumably lives with Nick Davis who is the sort of person who leaves comments on Samizdata. I’m kind of hoping that it should be possible to teach children about critical thinking; and that teachers are not necessarily the ultimate authority on things; and that in any case authority is not to be trusted all the time; and even that at school there are sometimes forces at work that mean you may be taught some distortion of the truth. They may not understand everything at once, but I would hope that someone with an interest in the world and armed with some concept of critical thinking should be able to escape even a state education unscathed.

But there is Nick Davis’s son. And there are people who tell me that children are very much influenced by their (not necessarily so critically thinking) peers.

“If they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet.”

I would like to think that no child of mine could say such a thing. Of course, it could be that the boy was just winding his dad up. No doubt my children are going to rebel by becoming vegetarians and I will have to watch them starve (or cook their own food); and they will certainly learn very quickly how to wind me up I am sure.

But it makes me wonder.

Signal and Noise

February 1st, 2010

Pa Annoyed has what I think is a very important explanation of the problems with doing statistics on the kinds of signals found in climate science. It’s important because it makes available to the layman a level of understanding about the nature of the science. And understanding helps us come up with good arguments.

The article starts off about an email from dendrochronologist Ed Cook’s in which he complains that he has to review a paper that contains too much maths. Pa Annoyed points out that it’s exactly the kind of maths he should be intimately familiar with.

Pa Annoyed then proceeds to explain the kind of maths we are talking about. It is about how to tell the difference between signal and noise. The problem is there are different kinds of forms that the signal and the noise can take, and climatologists seem very keen to assume that the signal is a straight line and the wobbles up and down are noise. The straight line goes steadily up and is global warming; the noise wobbles up and down and is weather.

Pa Annoyed explains that there is no physical reason for that to be the signal to be a straight line, and every reason for it to be what the graphs actually look like: a random walk. In other words, there can be other hypotheses that fit the data.

Read the whole thing. Really. Read it now. You’ll learn something.

Child License

February 1st, 2010

In the (awful) film Nine Months, there is a scene in which Hugh Grant’s character child psychologist Samuel Faulkner is talking to his girlfriend Rebecca Taylor, played by Julianne Moore, about one of his patients.

SF: …he’s got very severe problems, and we know who to thank, don’t we?
RT: Huh?
SF: You know, his parents. The state requires you to take a written test to drive a car, but any moron can become a parent and just destroy a child’s life.

It’s funny, I keep having the same thought myself. That I am allowed to raise a child. It shouldn’t be allowed! I’m amazed it is allowed, given everything else that is controlled by governments.

And then in a bookshop the other day I noticed a book by psychologist Oliver James called They F*** You Up: How to Survive Family Life. The premise is that nurture is far more important than nature and how you’re raised determines your character. One page I read was about how parents can affect whether you grow up to have a “punitive conscience”, which means liking rules and respecting authority.

Then I skipped to the end, where Oliver makes “some practical suggestions” that he believes “should be seriously considered by governments”.

The first is that since studies of mental illness show that affluence is less of a factor than quality of childcare, “it is extraordinary that economic growth is the principal plank of all mainstream political parties.” If only that were the case! “It should be replaced by a raft of policies designed to improve the quality of early childhood experience, such as paid leave for parents who wish to care for their children when they are small, and good quality nursery care or subsidies for paid babysitters for parents who want to work.” Actually I think we are most of the way there. But, ugh!

The next suggestion: “The obsession with economic performance indicators should be replaced with much greater measurement of the effect of government policy on our mental health.” That sounds better. The government drives me mad! But here we have a psychologist asking for the government to pay more attention to psychology. It’s not very imaginative.

The next suggestion is somewhat imaginative. “All children should undergo an emotional audit during their sixteenth year.” Whether they want it or not. It’s for their own good. “The grotesque overemphasis on exam performance should be replaced by a version of cognitive anallytic therapy (CAT), in which every child is helped to evaluate the impact of of his or her upbringing on his or her psychology.” And then presumably de-programmed by the state into a perfect citizen. It’s terrifying.

Finally, he makes a plea for some taxpayers’ money for him and his buddies. “The government should commission a large-scale study of a representative sample of the population, following them from before birth to death, to provide a better understanding of the effect of early childhood experiences on adult traits.” And what might the government do with the results? What happens, for instance, when governments commission a big study into climate? Climate change becomes the biggest problem known to man and our lives must be micromanaged to control it, that’s what.

I’d take the IPCC over Oliver James’ government psychology commission any day. What a scary, scary man.

Taxing Neurons

January 31st, 2010

My wife made a spreadsheet that calculated the family finances for various scenarios including differing lengths of unpaid maternity leave. “What your spreadsheet fails to take into account,” I said, “is that if you earn less over the course of the year then you will pay proportionally less tax.”

Debate ensued about how to calculate this. We would need a column for net pay. We would need to look up my wife’s tax allowance, and the various rates, and earnings levels at which they cut in. And then there is National Insurance which is another set of rules. In the end the spreadsheet would have encoded in its formulae the entire tax code. And if you work for half the year and not the other half, exactly when do you get the overpaid tax back?

This is my longstanding gripe: that not only do they take your money, they also use up valuable brain cycles thinking about all this, and valuable neurons storing knowlege about it.

In the end we decided that it wasn’t worth the effort, and I went off to play Eve Online, the intricacies of which are a much better use of brain space.

Mars

January 29th, 2010

A friend sent me a link to a story in the Times about Mars being in an interesting place. So I went out and took a thin photo.

moon_mars_close

Mars is definitely red.

This is how it looked on Google Sky Map on my phone. The great thing about this app is that it uses the phones GPS, accelerometer and compass to tell where you are pointing the phone. So you get an augmented reality labelled window onto the night sky.

DSC_3003

Bartle Bogle Hegarty

January 28th, 2010

They have done it again. This time, the Barclaycard contactless card is used from a roller coaster. In a world of PVRs, advertisers have to make adverts that people want to watch, and it shows.

I have one problem with contactless cards. The standard apparently doesn’t allow the reader to discriminate between cards. I used to leave my Oyster card in my wallet, but now my other contactless cards interfere with it, so I have to take it out.