Microwaving Milk

July 23rd, 2010

There’s an awful lot of guilt-mongering “advice” about looking after babies. In general, if something makes your life easier, someone will come up with a reason why it’s bad for your baby.

Mrs Rob just caught me putting Rob Junior’s milk in the microwave to warm it a bit out of the fridge. Apparently you’re not supposed to do that because of “hot spots” and because it adversely affects anti-infection ingredients in the milk. Sure enough, this stuff is all over the internet.

Well the hot spot stuff set off my bullshit detector. I can see how a microwave will heat things unevenly because of interference patterns in the radio waves, but between thermodynamics and convection the temperature in the milk will even out pretty quickly.

And microwaves don’t heat things especially differently to any other method of heating. I can’t see the chemical composition being affected much. Perhaps a few molecules get super-heated and chemically changed, but on average they will be heated to, er, the average temperature of the milk, which if I get my timings right is about body temperature.

Anyway, I heated some cow’s milk in a glass in the microwave, taking out the turntable which is there to even out the heating effect, a feature which not all microwave ovens have. Then I immediately drank the milk and it was uniformly warm. Hot spots must have been invented by someone unable to think or do experiments.

So put your baby’s milk in the microwave to warm it, enjoy the convenience, and don’t let anyone make you feel guilty about it. Just don’t be an idiot about it and heat it too much.

Insurance Insanity

July 15th, 2010

I know more or less how insurance works. You spread the risk around a large number of people. If there’s a one in ten chance of a £1000 claim and you have ten customers, you can charge them each £100 for a policy, plus a bit for admin and profit. If you can put separate people out into different boxes you can measure the risks of each box and charge premiums accordingly. Perhaps people who drive red cars are slightly less likely to claim, so you can charge them slightly less and attract more customers with red cars.

It doesn’t matter if it makes sense, as long as the numbers work out over a large number of people. You don’t need to know anything about the specific circumstances of a red car driver to offer him the same discount as all the other red car drivers. The more you know about your customer, the closer his premium will match your actual risk. But presumably there’s a limit to the information that it’s worthwhile to gather, because insurance companies don’t ask for all the information. At some point the cost of doing the admin and the calculations must outweigh the advantage of better knowing the risk. So people get lumped into vague boxes.

But the consequences can still seem mad.

The other day my motorcycle renewal quote came in at nearly £400. It was time to shop around, and I found that GoCompare.com would compare motorcycle insurance quotes. Worth a try. And a huge advantage of this is that you only have to fill in all the details once, on one uniform, fairly well designed web site, instead of having to do it multiple times on lots of different insurance companies’ badly designed sites.

And you can tweak the details and try to optimise the quotes. Is fully comprehensive much more expensive than third party, fire and theft? If I limit myself to 5000 miles does that make it cheaper? Does using the bike to commute make it much more expensive?

I noticed that there was a box to fill in if you stored the bike overnight at another address. I have the option of storing my bike at work in a secure underground car park, so I put in these details and the price plummeted. Great! I picked the best quote which was BikeSure, and handed over the money.

The next day BikeSure emailed me asking me to call them urgently about the details I had provided. It turns out that the underwriter refuses to insure my bike if it is kept more than a certain number of miles from where I live, so they could not offer me insurance after all. I asked how much it would cost to keep my bike at home, but no, they would not insure it to be kept at my home address either because being in London is too risky for them.

So the safe, secure car park is no good because it is too far from my home address which is also no good because it is too risky here.

I get the impression they did not believe that I would really be storing my bike where I said I was. Even the insurance company lady was somewhat incredulous. How can you commute if you store your bike at work? How do you get to work if not on your bike?

The thing is, if the insurance company and the underwriters knew more about me, they’d offer me a far better deal. I hardly use my bike — only in good weather and when the mood takes me. I nearly always commute by train, but quite enjoy the occasional ride home at night, and ride back to work in the morning. The bike really can be kept in the secure, underground car park with the CCTV and the 24 hour security guard.

But to verify all this would be far too expensive. I don’t fit into a neat box that they understand, so I don’t get the deal.

From Harry Potter to Global Warming

July 14th, 2010

I’d heard about it before, but finally went to read it after Eric Raymond blogged about it. It being:

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

In which Eliezer Yudkowsky “re-invents Harry Potter as a skeptic genius who sets himself the task of figuring out just how all this “magic” stuff works”.

It’s quite a learning experience, especially if you look up the bits you don’t understand. For example, I now know what arbitrage is.

Here’s a snippet from chapter one:

“Then you don’t have to fight over this,” Harry said firmly. Hoping against hope that this time, just this once, they would listen to him. “If it’s true, we can just get a Hogwarts professor here and see the magic for ourselves, and Dad will admit that it’s true. And if not, then Mum will admit that it’s false. That’s what the experimental method is for, so that we don’t have to resolve things just by arguing.”

The Professor turned and looked down at him, dismissive as usual. “Oh, come now, Harry. Really, magic? When you say that rationality is your favorite thing ever and read so much about it? I thought you’d know better than to take this seriously, son, even if you’re only ten. Magic is just about the most unscientific thing there is!”

[...]

“Mum,” Harry said. “If you want to win this argument with Dad, look in chapter two of the first book of the Feynman Lectures on Physics. There’s a quote there about how philosophers say a great deal about what science absolutely requires, and it is all wrong, because the only rule in science is that the final arbiter is observation – that you just have to look at the world and report what you see. Um… I can’t think offhand of where to find something about how it’s an ideal of science to settle things by experiment instead of violence or violent arguments -”

The author uses the pen name Less Wrong, which comes from a “community wiki devoted to refining the art of human rationality” called Less Wrong.

It’s the sort of site within which I imagine I could spend hours following the cross references. I haven’t yet, but one article about absence of evidence not being evidence of absence ends on this paragraph:

Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality; if you are equally good at explaining any outcome you have zero knowledge. The strength of a model is not what it can explain, but what it can’t, for only prohibitions constrain anticipation. If you don’t notice when your model makes the evidence unlikely, you might as well have no model, and also you might as well have no evidence; no brain and no eyes.

Which immediately made me think of global warmists who seem to always strive to fit the evidence to their hypotheses.

That site also contains lots of arguments about how to change your mind. One of these is titled Politics is the Mindkiller. Perhaps this will be a good site to go to to challenge my beliefs.

Airships in Afghanistan

July 13th, 2010

Partly I am testing out the “Press This” toolbar button for WordPress, but this looks interesting anyway:

BBC – Newsbeat – New airships to protect British troops.

It’s a surveillance blimp. It can take a “small amount of small arms fire”. I’m sort of surprised blimps aren’t already used for a lot of the things satellites are used for. Presumably the practicalities don’t work out. Perhaps these military blimps are a sign that civilian blimps are about to be feasible.

I’m now planning to go to the Farnborough air show. Maybe I’ll see this blimp there.

Usain Bolt Will Not Pay Tax

July 13th, 2010

Good for Usain Bolt.

New regulations mean the 23-year-old Jamaican could lose more money than he would earn from competing at the Crystal Palace Diamond League event.

“I am definitely not going to run [in London],” Bolt told a news conference.

Crystal Palace organisers had hoped to stage a three-way showdown between Bolt and his sprint rivals Asafa Powell and Tyson Gay.

Athletes competing in the UK are liable for a 50% tax rate on their appearance fee as well as a proportion of their total worldwide earnings – which for Bolt, who earns millions from endorsements, could be hugely costly.

More of this, please. The more high-profile people complaining about tax, the better. However:

The Government has since agreed to waive the rule so London can host the 2011 final, and competitors in the 2012 Olympics are also exempt.

What scoundrels. They’ll steal your money unless it suits them for you to appear in their showboating extravaganza, at which they’ll boast about how *they* made it all possible. When will people realise that governments do not make things possible, they only get in the way? Athletes of the world, unite! Boycott the UK Olympics! Have some principles! It’ll never happen…

Violent Threats Against Telecoms Companies

July 1st, 2010

New EU rules limiting international roaming charges come into effect today. I have written about this in strong terms before. There was some idiot interviewed on the radio this morning complaining that he’d run up a huge bill by mistake while on holiday. He has no problem with asking his friends the government to threaten people with violence to save him from his own mistakes.

Cut And Shut Ship

June 28th, 2010

Okay, I stole the title from the print version of the magazine. But this is cool: a company’s cable laying ship is too small, but instead of buying a bigger ship, they have chopped it in half and built a new middle.

How The World Works

June 28th, 2010

A quick flick through the June-July E&T magazine from the IET…

Professor Michael Grätzel, creator of dye-sensitised solar cells, has won the 2010 Millennium Technology Grand Prize, awarded by Technology Academy Finland. [...] Though Grätzel cells are still in relatively early stages of development, they show great promise as an inexpensive alternative to costly silicon solar cells and as an attractive candidate as a new renewable energy source, the judges said. [...] In 2010 the total amount of the prizes is £1.1m, of which £1m comes from the Finnish state and £100,000 from Technology Academy Finland.

Renault has adopted the Better Place system to sell a 160km-range vehicle for roughly the same price as an equivalent diesel car: the purchase price does not need to include the battery because that will be rented to the consumer. [...] The boot is also smaller – at 300 litres it is about the same size as the smaller Clio and about 60 per cent the capacity of the conventional Fluence. The car weighs a total of 300kg more than the diesel-driven model. [...] A Renault spokesman said the cost of ownership will be similar to that of a diesel-engine model once the rental and government subsidies for low-emissions vehicles are taken into account.

Green subsidies are influencing the pick up of investment interest, and not just in photonics says Magill. ‘Government subsidies are driving investment in a lot of cleantech and green technologies. In fact many privately held companies, small venture-backed and their investors – the venture firms themselves – are hiring consultants to understand how best to get at those government subsidies and incentives.’

However, these subsidies do not appeal to everyone. ‘We stay away from sectors or companies that depend on such tariffs because we know they change with the mood of the politicians. I don’t want to be dependent on that,’ says Sperling.

Knuckle Down

June 26th, 2010

There are different ways a community can react after a disaster. One is to sit around and put your hand out and wait for help from the government. Another is to just knuckle down and help each other.

Brad Paisley speaking on the Bob Harris Country Show on BBC Radio 2 about the Nashville floods.

Bad News Day

June 22nd, 2010

Truly we are beset upon all sides by the tyranny of evil men. But that’s not really news.