Archive for the ‘Enviro-Mentalism’ Category

Libertarianism and Global Warming

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Twice recently I have encountered arguments that libertarians don’t believe in global warming because if true, it would invalidate their world view. The first time was a comment on Eric Raymond’s blog, and the second a comment at Samizdata.

Presumably the idea is that since only government action could reduce emissions enough to avert global warming, you need big government to solve any such crisis. Libertarianism can’t solve this because the atmosphere is the ultimate commons.

But whatever the seriousness of global warming and whatever its causes, more freedom will always be a better solution than less freedom.

There is no conceivable problem that cannot better be solved by a free society than by a society ruled by a large state.

Free people are richer, more innovative and can respond more quickly. Governments are slow, and because they are centralised have a tendency to make the wrong choices. A government can only make one choice at a time, so it goes to its best experts and they decide what is to be done and it gets done, and then we find out what the unintended consequences are and start again. This is far inferior to a free market of competing ideas where lots of things get tried and winners emerge.

But what if the only way to prevent catastrophe is it dramatically reduce emissions immediately? Then there will be catastrophe! Governments are not able to co-ordinate the whole world into reducing emissions. They’ve been trying for long enough and not succeeding. Now, how do you want to face catastrophe? Free, or constrained?

Science and Politics

Friday, June 24th, 2011

The point at which we begin to let a political agenda dictate what science is all about is the point when science ceases to be a viable enterprise.

So says Gordon Gallup, Jr. But he’s not talking about climate change, oh no.

Climate Scientists not the best scientists?

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

A commenter named “Justice4Rinka” on a Bishop Hill post about politics and science suggests that climate scientists are not exactly the cream of the crop. The really clever people go for the harder sciences. I’m not sure: climate science done right seem like quite a challenge to me. But it’s quite funny. He’s responding to an observation about the nastiness and venom seen in climate debates.

The nastiness is surely because it’s politics, not science.

UK climate psyentists appear to be thickoes who got a few Ds and Es in their A Levels in the 1970s, and ended up at third-rate ratholes like UEA because they weren’t intelligent enough to get places or jobs studying anything harder anywhere better.

There are perhaps one or two exceptions, in the form of brightish people who need to be the smartest person in the room and who therefore seek out rooms full of climate psyentists. But in general the above seems to be true. CAGW is a scare got up by the bottom half of the geography A Level class of 1975, cynically exploited by a bunch of ecofascist nutters who will only be happy when almost everyone is dead and whoever’s left is poor. The thickoes get to feel clever for once, and the ecofascists get a new excuse to lecture and impoverish everyone else.

The west has always an elite that spent its time lecturing, hectoring and oppressing its own people and – especially – benighted brown foreigners about their moral bankrupty. In the sixteenth century we had the Catholic Church burning south Americans at the stake for being heathen, and in the twenty-first we have its natural successor in the form of the IPCC.

The comparison with organised religion has often been made, but one made less often is that despite Galileo’s excellent work debunking its claims, the Catholic Church still exists – and in fact has more adherents now than it did then. Something of the kind can be expected with CAGW, I reckon. Like with those loony millenarian cults, the disaster will always be just about to happen.

As Matthew 26:11 almost says, Ye have the pisspoor always with you.

What?

Saturday, April 9th, 2011

While shopping online on Tesco I saw:

What am I supposed to do with that information?

Monbiot on Nuclear Power

Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

I started to like George Monbiot a bit when I read his latest Guardian column on nuclear power. He has apparently changed his beliefs based on lots of work, digging into the evidence and checking sources. You certainly can’t accuse him of being the type of lazy journalist who doesn’t check his facts. And here he is saying: I thought nuclear power was bad, but now I don’t think it is bad any more, because I have done some research.

But something bothered me about why he thought nuclear power was okay. It’s as if he is right for the wrong reasons. In his correspondence with the anti-nuclear campaigner:

I’m struck by the fact that none of the attachments you’ve sent me is a peer-reviewed article. [...] I’m looking for peer-reviewed papers or high-level reports

In the analysis of her evidence:

As my article explains, the Yablukov book has little scientific standing and has not been peer-reviewed

From the article itself:

Its publication seems to have arisen from a confusion about whether the Annals was a book publisher or a scientific journal. The academy has given me this statement: “In no sense did Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences or the New York Academy of Sciences commission this work; nor by its publication do we intend to independently validate the claims made in the translation or in the original publications cited in the work. The translated volume has not been peer-reviewed by the New York Academy of Sciences, or by anyone else.”

I can see why a journalist wants to be able to point to proper papers in proper scientific journals, but it’s all argument from authority. There’s very little engagement with the details of the argument. What are the scientists saying? What are the environmentalists saying? Why is the group that is right, right? Why is the group that is wrong, wrong?

And then this, at which I went from thinking, “maybe Monbiot is not so bad after all” to “oh, yes he is”:

Failing to provide sources, refuting data with anecdote, cherry-picking studies, scorning the scientific consensus, invoking a cover-up to explain it: all this is horribly familiar. These are the habits of climate change deniers, against which the green movement has struggled valiantly, calling science to its aid. It is distressing to discover that when the facts don’t suit them, members of this movement resort to the follies they have denounced.

Those who refute the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming hypothesis, (deniers, if you like), are not correct because they have more peer reviewed papers published in respected scientific journals. They are correct because they have analysed the data and methods of climate scientists and found flaws in the work. You can tell they are correct by understanding the arguments. For example, you can learn what principal component analysis is and how it works and see why its incorrect use in producing the hockey stick graph gave the results that it did. And it’s quite possible to explain this to a general audience.

This is exactly what Monbiot’s “climate change deniers” have done. They have not failed to provide sources (in fact they are more open than the climate scientists, and in many cases their original work is their source, whether it is peer-reviewed or not), they do not rely on anecdote, they do scorn the scientific consensus (consensus is meaningless) and they don’t invoke “cover-ups”.

Peer-review is not the be-all-and-end-all. It’s perfectly possible for groupthink to set in. Scientists often get attached to their theories and defend them too much. The consensus is often overturned. Without understanding the details, the UN’s report into Chernobyl might be just as flawed as its report into climate change.

If Monbiot dropped all the argument from authority and wrote about, for example, why the UN report on Chernobyl is more correct than the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences book, then he would have a better case.

He actually does this occasionally:

A devastating review in the journal Radiation Protection Dosimetry points out that the book achieves its figure by the remarkable method of assuming that all increased deaths from a wide range of diseases – including many which have no known association with radiation – were caused by the accident(15). There is no basis for this assumption, not least because screening in many countries improved dramatically after the disaster and, since 1986, there have been massive changes in the former eastern bloc. The study makes no attempt to correlate exposure to radiation with the incidence of disease(16).

That’s the kind of analysis which can get to the truth. If Monbiot could do this consistently, and apply the same kind of thinking to the global warming debate, he might come up with the right answer there, as well.

Climate Lessons

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

Climate Lessons is a blog about the intersection of climate science and education. Bad science is being taught in schools and children are expected to worry about the fate of the planet. This sort of thing will affect me directly in five years or less, so I’d better get up to speed.

Don’t miss the post about the student who mildly rebelled on a climate questionnaire, or the one about government meddling in geography lessons, the fisking of a sinister video that teaches teachers how to indoctrinate children, or the paired list of opposite things climate change will cause.

H/T Bishop Hill.

Update: Good god, that video is fucking sinister. You can actually see them being indoctrinated.

Hugh’s Fish Fight

Monday, January 17th, 2011

I was forced to watch some of Hugh’s Fish Fight the other day. It was the episode about salmon. In it, wealthy, successful TV chef Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall lectured us about how we should eat a wider variety of fish and not so much salmon.

He mocked people who said they preferred salmon because it had fewer bones. But people can like whatever fish they like for whatever reasons they like. And fishing out tiny bones is annoying. And salmon tastes good.

He complained that farmed salmon is fed on herring and sardines. It takes three pounds of these to get one pound of farmed salmon. So what? Quite a lot of the herring and sardines would be thrown away anyway. And hasn’t Hugh heard of the law of conservation of mass? It’s not as if the organic matter disappears. It eventually rots or is eaten and the carbon dioxide ends up as plant and algae food and so around it goes. Nothing is ever really wasted.

Hugh would prefer us to eat the herring and sardines directly, but given that we have already expressed a preference for salmon, that would achieve nothing except to make us less happy. To make us decide to be less happy, Hugh is trying to make us feel guilty.

It’s time people stopped letting people like Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall make them feel guilty.

Hugh spent much of his programme about salmon worrying about the scale of the operation. Oh no, they hoover up salmon with a big pipe! Oh no, they have a big machine to chop off all their heads! Oh no, there are so many! I had no idea we ate so much salmon!

Well Hugh, how do you think you feed a nation of 60 million people without them all spending their entire lives farming and fishing? It’s the economies of scale of things like fish farms that makes it possible for us all to eat salmon and still have leisure time. Hugh wants to make salmon more expensive so that only people like him can eat it, and we’re all stuck eating herring.

He’s not just talking about it on TV, he wants to influence policy. He has a campaign web site promoting an early day motion and wants us all writing to our MPs. Much of it talks about the “problem” of discards.

Fishermen are throwing away the fish they don’t want — the ones we don’t eat. He wants politicians to prevent this.

But it’s a non-problem, for the same reason that wasted salmon feed is a non-problem. The waste is an illusion: the dead fish don’t just disappear, they are recycled by the sea: eaten by other creatures and bacteria, and eventually turned into new tasty fish. The energy for all this comes from the sun, so there’s an endless supply. It’s all sustainable. Where does Hugh think fish come from?

But what if we eat too much of one kind of fish and run out? Market forces will keep this in check. If we fish to many of one kind of fish, they become harder to find and prices go up, and fewer will be sold, until a balance is reached. Prices will settle at a level people are prepared to pay for that kind of fish. Innovations such as farming can make an otherwise expensive fish cheaper, as in the case of salmon. This is all good.

But the Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstalls don’t like innovation. They yearn for an imagined golden age when we all gamboled in meadows and were in tune with nature and ate fish caught with our bare hands. If such an age ever existed there were a lot more hungry people in it who didn’t live very long and they certainly didn’t get to eat salmon.

Nature isn’t something to be in-tune with. It’s something to conquer, before it conquers you. So sod off back to nature, Hugh, and let the rest of us enjoy our salmon.

Update: And another thing. If you still think there is something good about Hugh’s campaign, consider the outcomes. The only way he can get us to eat less cod and salmon is to make it more expensive. There are various ideas on his site, such as fish credit trading schemes for fishermen, but ultimately it’s about reducing the supply of our favourite fish, which will make them more expensive. Now what do you think people will do? Buy herring because they can’t afford salmon? Of course not. They’ll end up eating less fish overall, to the detriment of their health.

Hockey Stick Illusion in Foyles

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

image

Here is the Hockey Stick Illusion, as seen in Foyles. They have one of Lomborg’s books too, and the Christopher Booker one, as well as an interesting looking skeptical book called Climate Confusion by Roy W. Spencer.

No Conspiracy Needed

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Eric Raymond kicks ass by writing basically what I’ve been thinking for a long time without ever quite straightening it out enough to write about it myself.

In his post he explains what he means by error cascade, zombie, Gaianist and green-shirt, but if you’re short on time you can guess and you’ll be about right. Here’s the good bit:

My model of what’s been going on is basically this: The hockey team starts an error cascade that sweeps up a lot of scientists. The AGW meme awakens chiliastic emotional responses in a lot of Gaianists. The zombies and the green-shirts grab onto that quasi-religious wave as a political strategem (the difference is that the zombies actively want to trash capitalism, while the green-shirts just want to hobble and milk it). Pro-AGW scientists get more funding from the green-shirts within governments, which reinforces the error cascade — it’s easier not to question when your grant money would be at risk for doing so. After a few times around this cycle, the hockey team notices it’s riding a tiger and starts on the criminal-conspiracy stuff so it will never have to risk getting off.

Overall, is this conspiracy? No. Mostly it’s just people responding to short-term incentives, unaware that they’re caught up in an error cascade and/or being politically fucked around.

He also explains why it will all just happen again unless people are properly punished.

School Indoctrination

Monday, February 8th, 2010

On a Samizdata post about the Tories’ failure to capitalise on the recent loss of faith in climate science, Nick Davis comments:

At school, my 9 year old and his classmates are learning all about ranforests.

Part of his homework for the weekend is research: “Find as many reasons for the destruction of the rainforests as you can. Record them in an informative way“.

What an interesting question? What an open-minded teacher!

I have given him a handful of pointers: to raise a country out of poverty by export led growth; to clear land for industrialisation or habitation; to provide building materials; to clear land for farming.

His reply is that I have misunderstood the teacher’s instruction. He is supposed to be finding out why it has happened/is happening, not why it may be a Good Thing (TM).

He’s either too clever for me, or too indoctrinated! My explanation about eco-imperialism (why should we deny them the ability to enjoy western comforts?) was met with “if they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet“.

Following our discussion he has therefore written this: “There is no reason for destroying the rainforests”.

I think I need to dig up Alvin Rabushka’s book (which I have lent out or lost or both) or Peter Bauer for some inspiration. Anyone any other ideas?

UPDATE: Just remembered that Lomborg’s The Skeptical Environmentalist has a discussion on this issue. And my well-thumbed copy is in easy reach…

William H Stoddard makes this valid snipe about “[I]f they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet.”:

That kid’s mastered the green agenda, all right: We have to keep Them poor. It’s for their own good, of course.

Manuel II Paleologos chips in with:

Nick – I was revising GCSE RE with my eldest last week and came across a statement categorically stating that “poverty” has got worse in the world since the Brandt report in 1980.

What can they mean? Bring back Carter and Callaghan!

It’s hard to know where to start deconstructing this argument, but I struggled to think of any measure at all where this was true.

My eldest is a bit autistic so I tried not to confuse him too much, but Parents’ Evening is going to be fun.

Ages ago, the englishman was complaining about his son’s homework being set by Christian Aid, and being all about how climate change is making life hard for poor people.

All of this is of much interest to me, as I’m expecting to be sending a child of my own to school in, ooh, about five years or so. Nick Davis’s comment in particular is interesting because his son argues back. Now, Nick Davis’s son presumably lives with Nick Davis who is the sort of person who leaves comments on Samizdata. I’m kind of hoping that it should be possible to teach children about critical thinking; and that teachers are not necessarily the ultimate authority on things; and that in any case authority is not to be trusted all the time; and even that at school there are sometimes forces at work that mean you may be taught some distortion of the truth. They may not understand everything at once, but I would hope that someone with an interest in the world and armed with some concept of critical thinking should be able to escape even a state education unscathed.

But there is Nick Davis’s son. And there are people who tell me that children are very much influenced by their (not necessarily so critically thinking) peers.

“If they all start to use computers and the internet, that’ll use lots of energy which will destroy the planet.”

I would like to think that no child of mine could say such a thing. Of course, it could be that the boy was just winding his dad up. No doubt my children are going to rebel by becoming vegetarians and I will have to watch them starve (or cook their own food); and they will certainly learn very quickly how to wind me up I am sure.

But it makes me wonder.