In the lift yesterday morning some colleagues were grumbling about the weather. I said I expect a cool summer, despite predictions of a warm one. Predictions of a warm summer were probably based on an expectation of global warming, I said, but global temperatures are down anyway, the various ocean climate cycles are in cool phases, and sun activity is low, so if that has anything to do with the climate, I’d expect things to stay cool.
Ah, said my colleague, but if global warming is happening, the UK will get cooler because of the gulf stream.
That might have been the story a few years ago, but no-one is saying that any more. What I find interesting is that fairly switched on people can be so ill-informed. It’s probably because, unless you take an active interest in the subject, you’ll just be absorbing stories from the mainstream media. And it’s hardly news when a disaster scenario turns out not to be true.
I managed to find a link to an article summarising the demise of the gulf stream shutting down story. It was covered in New Scientist and Science back in November 2006. It was also one of the inaccuracies found in Al Gore’s movie by a British judge.
Of course plenty of research is still going on into ocean circulation. Like most things in climate science it is understood far less well than we are led to believe. Only recently there has been controversy about the model of ocean circulation.
Meanwhile, I discover to my annoyance that I can’t buy 100 Watt light bulbs any more. I’d meant to stockpile them but they haven’t been on sale since January. EU bureaucrats don’t care that I want them for a light I rarely switch on.