Something big is happening: we are living in interesting times. The media have decided that the government needs to be changed. There is economic turmoil. People are afraid, but probably less about swine flu and the climate than about keeping their jobs. Nobody knows what will happen, so I am going to make some guesses. These are based on a mixture of hunches, wishful thinking and stuff I’ve read lately.
- There will suddenly be an election earlier than “anyone” predicted.
- Cameron’s lot will become unpopular very quicky after they get in power and since everyone will still hate the Labour party the whole of politics will be disgraced and someone new will save the day.
- There will be an upturn in the economy in the next nine months, followed by another even bigger downturn in the next 18 months and it will last for two or three years.
- There will be lots of inflation that “no-one” was predicting in the next two or three years.
- At some point in the next five years, the mainstream media will turn against the climate change consensus (these things come and go like fashions and this one is on borrowed time).
- At some point in the next two years the mainstream media will turn against Obama, a little bit, but not to the extent they did Bush and Brown.
- State pensions, welfare and healthcare will be phased out over the next twenty years to the extent that they are irrelevant to anyone under 40. You will need to take care of yourself. But healthcare will improve and get cheaper to the point that it won’t matter much. Private screening, for example, will be a big thing.
- Despite all of the bad stuff, twenty years from now people (especially “poor” people) will be better off and living longer because of technology.
Hopefully everything there will turn out to have been uncannily accurate and I can brag about it in a future post. Now, where to put my money?